787 worst-case scenario: $5B writeoff by Boeing

As government regulators investigate Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and company engineers seek solutions, investors and analysts are grappling with the question: How much will the plane's grounding cost?

The answer depends on what probes in the United States and Japan uncover, with scenarios ranging from a quick resolution if a few defective parts have to be swapped out to a drawn-out inquiry that requires a fundamental redesign. The worst case scenario: The Dreamliner's problems run so deep that Chief Executive Jim McNerney has to write off about $5 billion in anticipated revenue, said Howard Rubel, a Jefferies & Co. analyst who puts the odds of that at about 4 percent.

The costs are likely to be much less, in the hundreds of millions of dollars, say investors and analysts, including New York-based Rubel. That would let Boeing, which reports 2012 earnings Jan. 30, reap the rewards of what he estimates was a $25 billion investment in the plane, clearing the way for a profit surge and more money for investors.

"As far as dividend growth, cash flow and share buybacks, I think that's still intact," said Gary Bradshaw, a fund manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, who added to his Boeing stake after a fire broke out on a Dreamliner Jan. 7.

U.S. investigators are still searching for what caused the fire in the lithium-ion batteries on a Japan Airlines Co. 787 in Boston that day and a fault that forced an All Nippon Airways Co. plane to make an emergency landing in Japan Jan. 16. The jet debuted commercially in 2011, and 50 have been delivered so far.

The grounding will most likely cost Boeing $550 million, Rubel wrote in a report with a range of potential expenses, from $125 million to reimburse carriers that lease replacement jets to the $5 billion writeoff. Doug Harned, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst in New York, estimated Boeing's expense at less than $350 million.

With probes under way by the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board, McNerney will face questions on this week's earnings call that he won't be able to answer. Chicago-based Boeing is due to give its 2013 financial forecast and delivery plans.

"We are working this issue tirelessly," Chaz Bickers, a spokesman, said of the 787. "At the same time, we are keeping our other teams keenly focused on their own program performance and customer commitments."

Earnings per share may rise more than 50 percent, to $7.69 by 2015 from $5 in 2012, the average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Analysts project that Boeing garnered $81.7 billion in sales last year, which may grow to $87.9 billion in 2013.

The planemaker has said it plans to double 787 output to 10 a month this year as it pares a backlog of about 800 unfilled orders. That's one piece of the company's 60 percent production boost in the four years through 2014 to meet demand from airlines for more fuel-efficient planes.

"You look out a couple of years and they could be earning $8 a share, and then you really have a cheap stock," said Bradshaw, at Hodges Capital Management.

Bernstein's Harned estimated that Boeing had set a 787 delivery target of 93 jets for 2013. The planemaker gets a big chunk of the price before delivery, so even if 20 jets push into 2014, only about $1 billion in cash flow would be delayed, and that would be quickly made up, Harned said in a Jan. 22 note.

The shares haven't fallen further in part because investors are used to Dreamliner woes after seven delays pushed back its entry into service by more than three years, according to Carter Leake, a BB&T Capital Markets analyst in Richmond, Va.

In a worst-case scenario, the model may be grounded more than three months, which could force a production slowdown, said Leake, a former pilot who also worked for Canadian planemaker Bombardier Inc. While Boeing continues to assemble 787s, the grounding has halted deliveries, because buyers couldn't fly away in their new planes.

"The market is in a period of disbelief that it could be anything other than a quick fix, despite the fact that we're in an open investigation," Leake said.

Boeing felt the weight of investors' 787 dismay before the grounding. Through last week, the shares had slumped 26 percent since the day before the planemaker disclosed the first Dreamliner delay, in October 2007.

Any reworking of the Dreamliner would come alongside the development this year of the 787-9, a stretched version of the plane, and the upgraded 737 Max, which is scheduled to enter airline fleets in 2017. The planemaker is also working to develop a 787-10 variant and a revamp of the 777.

Concurrent projects have proved a risk in the past, with the Dreamliner's struggles spilling onto the 747-8 jumbo jet program. Its 2011 debut came two years late after Boeing shifted engineers to help on the 787.

The Dreamliner has long been pivotal to Boeing's product strategy. With the plane's promise of a 20 percent gain in fuel economy over comparable wide-bodies, Boeing markets the 787 as a way for airlines to fly long-haul routes without larger 777s or 747 jumbo jets. The 787-8, the only model in service, seats as many as 250 people and lists for about $207 million, though buyers typically get a discount.

The Dreamliner's early setbacks echo the "teething" pains common to new jet models, said Gary Flam, a partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles, whose holdings include Boeing.

"The market in general is telling you there's some caution, but not tremendous concern yet," Flam said. "I've actually been surprised how well the stock has acted given the news."

In the 1990s, Boeing's 777 encountered delays in getting FAA approval for its engines, and some planes were pulled from trans-Atlantic flights because of power-plant issues.

Among additional early glitches was the delay of the 747's first commercial flight, two decades previously, also for engine troubles. Later, the planemaker had to redesign a rudder-control part on the 737 and replace it on all the jets.

"Boeing has a very strong record of being able to surmount these issues," said Peter Jankovskis, who helps manage $3 billion of assets including Boeing stock as chief investment officer for Oakbrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois. "We remain confident in Boeing and their management and technical teams' ability to solve these issues."

Shareholders hoping for clues about the progress of that effort didn't get much when the NTSB gave a briefing last week on its "methodical" inquiry. The agency said yesterday that investigators found no evidence of flaws in the battery charger that would have caused the Boston fire. No problems were found in the auxiliary power unit, which contains the battery, either, the NTSB said.

Investors' support for Boeing and the 787 remains tied to the idea that the faults are in the lithium-ion battery packs, not a fundamental defect in the planemaker's most technologically advanced jet ever, according to Leake, the BB&T analyst.

"If, as this unfolds, it's anything more than a defective battery, then that confidence will start to wane," he said.

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Fire at crowded nightclub kills at least 200 in Brazil

SANTA MARIA, Brazil (Reuters) - A nightclub fire killed at least 233 people in southern Brazil on Sunday when a band's pyrotechnics show set the building ablaze and fleeing partygoers stampeded toward blocked exits in the ensuing panic.

Most of those who died were suffocated by toxic fumes that rapidly filled the crowded club after sparks from pyrotechnics used by the band for visual effects set fire to soundproofing on the ceiling, local fire officials said.

"Smoke filled the place instantly, the heat became unbearable," survivor Murilo Tiescher, a medical student, told GloboNews TV. "People could not find the only exit. They went to the toilet thinking it was the exit and many died there."

Firemen said one exit was locked and that club bouncers, who at first thought those fleeing were trying to skip out on bar tabs, initially blocked patrons from leaving. The security staff relented only when they saw flames engulfing the ceiling.

The tragedy in the university town of Santa Maria in one of Brazil's most prosperous states comes as the country scrambles to improve safety, security and logistical shortfalls before the 2014 World Cup soccer tournament and the 2016 Olympics, both intended to showcase the economic advances and first-world ambitions of Latin America's largest nation.

In Santa Maria, a city of more than 275,000 people, rescue workers and weary officials wept alongside family and friends of the victims at a gymnasium being used as a makeshift morgue.

"It's the saddest, saddest day of my life," said Neusa Soares, the mother of one of those killed, 22-year-old Viviane Tolio Soares. "I never thought I would have to live to see my girl go away."

President Dilma Rousseff cut short an official visit to Chile and flew to Santa Maria, where she wept as she spoke to relatives of the victims, most of whom were university students.

"All I can say at the moment is that my feelings are of deep sorrow," said Rousseff, who began her political career in Rio Grande do Sul, the state where the fire occurred.

It was the deadliest nightclub fire since 309 people died in a discotheque blaze in China in 2000 and Brazil's worst fire at an entertainment venue since a disgruntled employee set fire to a circus in 1961, killing well over 300 people.

'BARRIER OF THE DEAD'

Local authorities said 120 men and 113 women died in the fire, and 92 people are still being treated in hospitals.

News of the fire broke on Sunday morning, when local news broadcast images of shocked people outside the nightclub called Boate Kiss. Gradually, grisly details emerged.

"We ran into a barrier of the dead at the exit," Colonel Guido Pedroso de Melo, commander of the fire brigade in Rio Grande do Sul, said of the scene that firefighters found on arrival. "We had to clear a path to get to the rest of those that were inside."

Pedroso de Melo said the popular nightclub was overcrowded with 1,500 people packed inside and they could not exit fast.

"Security guards blocked their exit and did not allow them to leave quickly. That caused panic," he said.

The fire chief said the club was authorized to be open, though its permit was in the process of being renewed. But he pointed to several egregious safety violations - from the flare that went off during the show to the locked door that kept people from getting out.

"The problem was the use of pyrotechnics, which is not permitted," Pedroso de Melo said.

The club's management said in a statement that its staff was trained and prepared to deal with any emergency. It said it would help authorities with their investigation.

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Chris Brown investigated for possible assault

WEST HOLLYWOOD, Calif. (AP) — Grammy-winning singer Chris Brown is under investigation for an alleged assault in a West Hollywood parking lot, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department said early Monday.

Deputies responding to a report of six men fighting Sunday night found the scene clear, but were told by witnesses that there had been a brief fight over a parking space.

“The altercation allegedly led to Chris Brown punching the victim,” the department said in a statement released early Monday morning.

The “victim” wasn’t identified but the celebrity website TMZ — which first reported the fight outside the Westlake Recording Studio — said it also involved Frank Ocean, one of the top nominees at Grammy Awards next month.

In a Twitter posting later, Ocean said he “got jumped by (Brown) and a couple guys” and suffered a finger cut.

It wasn’t Brown’s first problem in the run-up to the Grammys. His attack on singer Rihanna on the eve of the 2009 awards event overshadowed the show.

Last June, he was injured in a brawl with members of hip-hop star Drake’s entourage at a New York nightclub.

No arrests were made. Brown was gone by the time deputies arrived but the department said the investigation is ongoing and Brown would be contacted later.

Email messages to Ocean’s publicist and Brown’s lawyer were not immediately returned. A man answering the phone at the recording studio declined to comment.

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Well: Keeping Blood Pressure in Check

Since the start of the 21st century, Americans have made great progress in controlling high blood pressure, though it remains a leading cause of heart attacks, strokes, congestive heart failure and kidney disease.

Now 48 percent of the more than 76 million adults with hypertension have it under control, up from 29 percent in 2000.

But that means more than half, including many receiving treatment, have blood pressure that remains too high to be healthy. (A normal blood pressure is lower than 120 over 80.) With a plethora of drugs available to normalize blood pressure, why are so many people still at increased risk of disease, disability and premature death? Hypertension experts offer a few common, and correctable, reasons:

¶ About 20 percent of affected adults don’t know they have high blood pressure, perhaps because they never or rarely see a doctor who checks their pressure.

¶ Of the 80 percent who are aware of their condition, some don’t appreciate how serious it can be and fail to get treated, even when their doctors say they should.

¶ Some who have been treated develop bothersome side effects, causing them to abandon therapy or to use it haphazardly.

¶ Many others do little to change lifestyle factors, like obesity, lack of exercise and a high-salt diet, that can make hypertension harder to control.

Dr. Samuel J. Mann, a hypertension specialist and professor of clinical medicine at Weill-Cornell Medical College, adds another factor that may be the most important. Of the 71 percent of people with hypertension who are currently being treated, too many are taking the wrong drugs or the wrong dosages of the right ones.

Dr. Mann, author of “Hypertension and You: Old Drugs, New Drugs, and the Right Drugs for Your High Blood Pressure,” says that doctors should take into account the underlying causes of each patient’s blood pressure problem and the side effects that may prompt patients to abandon therapy. He has found that when treatment is tailored to the individual, nearly all cases of high blood pressure can be brought and kept under control with available drugs.

Plus, he said in an interview, it can be done with minimal, if any, side effects and at a reasonable cost.

“For most people, no new drugs need to be developed,” Dr. Mann said. “What we need, in terms of medication, is already out there. We just need to use it better.”

But many doctors who are generalists do not understand the “intricacies and nuances” of the dozens of available medications to determine which is appropriate to a certain patient.

“Prescribing the same medication to patient after patient just does not cut it,” Dr. Mann wrote in his book.

The trick to prescribing the best treatment for each patient is to first determine which of three mechanisms, or combination of mechanisms, is responsible for a patient’s hypertension, he said.

¶ Salt-sensitive hypertension, more common in older people and African-Americans, responds well to diuretics and calcium channel blockers.

¶ Hypertension driven by the kidney hormone renin responds best to ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers, as well as direct renin inhibitors and beta-blockers.

¶ Neurogenic hypertension is a product of the sympathetic nervous system and is best treated with beta-blockers, alpha-blockers and drugs like clonidine.

According to Dr. Mann, neurogenic hypertension results from repressed emotions. He has found that many patients with it suffered trauma early in life or abuse. They seem calm and content on the surface but continually suppress their distress, he said.

One of Dr. Mann’s patients had had high blood pressure since her late 20s that remained well-controlled by the three drugs her family doctor prescribed. Then in her 40s, periodic checks showed it was often too high. When taking more of the prescribed medication did not result in lasting control, she sought Dr. Mann’s help.

After a thorough work-up, he said she had a textbook case of neurogenic hypertension, was taking too much medication and needed different drugs. Her condition soon became far better managed, with side effects she could easily tolerate, and she no longer feared she would die young of a heart attack or stroke.

But most patients should not have to consult a specialist. They can be well-treated by an internist or family physician who approaches the condition systematically, Dr. Mann said. Patients should be started on low doses of one or more drugs, including a diuretic; the dosage or number of drugs can be slowly increased as needed to achieve a normal pressure.

Specialists, he said, are most useful for treating the 10 percent to 15 percent of patients with so-called resistant hypertension that remains uncontrolled despite treatment with three drugs, including a diuretic, and for those whose treatment is effective but causing distressing side effects.

Hypertension sometimes fails to respond to routine care, he noted, because it results from an underlying medical problem that needs to be addressed.

“Some patients are on a lot of blood pressure drugs — four or five — who probably don’t need so many, and if they do, the question is why,” Dr. Mann said.

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Japan eased safety standards ahead of Boeing 787 rollout

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's government stepped in to give Boeing Co's now-grounded 787 Dreamliner and its made-in-Japan technology a boost in 2008 by easing safety regulations, fast-tracking the rollout of the groundbreaking jet for Japan's biggest airlines, according to records and participants in the process.

The concessions by an advisory panel to Japan's transport ministry reflected pressure from All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) and a push to support Japanese firms that supply 35 percent of the 787 from the carbon-fiber in its wings to sophisticated electrical systems and batteries used to save fuel, people involved in the deliberations told Reuters.

"I believe the request for the changes came initially from the airlines. Ultimately, it was a discussion of measures to lower operating costs for the airlines," said Masatoshi Harigae, head of aviation at Japan's Aerospace Exploration Agency, one of the outside advisers who urged the eased regulatory standards.

There is no suggestion that easing regulatory standards contributed to the problems facing the Dreamliner, idled around the world after a string of malfunctions ranging from fuel leaks to battery meltdowns. There is also no evidence to suggest that continuing the mandate for more frequent manual inspections for new aircraft, including the Boeing 787, before 2008 would have helped catch signs of trouble earlier.

The looser regulations did not specifically address the risk of the Dreamliner's powerful batteries catching fire, the risk that safety investigators have zeroed in on in recent weeks.

But the steps taken by Japan's Civil Aviation Bureau in 2008 underscore how the deep commercial ties between Boeing and its Japanese suppliers and the backing of ANA and JAL helped build support for an easing of certification standards, based on a review of meeting records by the advisory panel released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and comments from three of the seven experts who participated.

ANA and JAL declined to comment, deferring questions on regulatory standards to aviation officials and the ministry.

"We have not brought down our standards in comparison to other countries. This was a pragmatic revision," Tatsuyuki Shimazu, Chief Air Worthiness Engineer at the Civil Aviation Bureau, said.

ONGOING PROBE

Earlier this month, ANA was forced to make an emergency landing on a 787 domestic flight after a battery overheated and partially melted, triggering smoke alarms in the cockpit. The probe into that incident may take weeks or months as investigators still lack basic data to understand what went wrong, people involved have said.

In the meantime, the indefinite grounding of the Dreamliner has raised costs for both ANA and JAL and threatened to push back plans both carriers had for growth and new routes based on the new aircraft, analysts have said.

After three meetings by a panel of industry and policy experts that concluded in March 2008, Japan's transport ministry said it would adopt 40 proposals to streamline regulations surrounding new aircraft. At the time, the ministry said the easier regulatory standards were designed in part to "quickly realize the benefits from the introduction of the 787."

ANA, the Dreamliner's biggest customer, and JAL committed to buy the first 787 in 2004, helping Boeing kick-start orders for the futuristic plane. Both subsequently increased their orders, with ANA planning to eventually fly 66 Dreamliners.

"At the time there was a lot of confidence in the aircraft. It was a discussion of measures to lower operating costs for the airlines," said Harigae.

Japan's government agencies often convene blue-ribbon panels of outside experts to review regulatory policy changes, as the transport ministry did for aircraft safety rules in 2007.

QUICKER TURNAROUNDS

Changes endorsed by the aviation group, including 40 revised safety guidelines, were presented as an effort to bring Japan into line with the framework of regulations in other markets, including the United States. At least five recommendations in the advisory report benefited the 787. Four mentioned support for the Dreamliner directly.

Three of the rule changes dealt with abbreviated testing and approval of pilots who had been cleared to fly the Boeing 777 and were preparing to switch to the 787. "It (787) is highly innovative and its safety is also advanced, but it's also very similar in design to the 777," said Kinya Fujiishi, an aviation journalist who sat on the panel. "This is why we thought it would be fine to revise the rule."

Another approved rule change exempted Boeing's new jet from the need for detailed inspections by ground crew after each landing that would have meant higher costs - and longer delays - for the airlines with each flight. Participants said the panel concluded such checks were not needed because of the Dreamliner's sophisticated on-board diagnostic system.

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A violent Saturday leaves 7 dead

Four shootings -- two of them double homicides -- and a stabbing left 7 people dead Saturday, authorities said.

In what appeared to be the last homicide of the day, a man in his 30s was fatally stabbed about 11:50 p.m. in the South Shore neighborhood, police said.

The stabbing happened during an argument in the 2500 block of East 73rd Street, Chicago Police News Affairs Officer Ron Gaines said.

The man was found unresponsive on the scene.

Less than two hours earlier, about 10:05 p.m., a man was killed in the Englewood neighborhood, making him the sixth person shot day Saturday, police said.

The 38-year-old man died on the scene, in the 7000 block of South Carpenter Street, Gaines said.

Earlier, in the second double homicide of the day, a 16-year-old boy and a 32-year-old man were gunned down in the West Garfield Park neighborhood about 5 p.m., police said.

Officers responded to a call of a person shot in the 4200 block of West Congress Parkway and found the two lying dead outside on the ground, according to the police.

Both victims lived in Chicago, police said. 

No one has been arrested.

Police had the crime scene near Genevieve Melody Elementary School taped off at least one block to the north, east and west, while neighbors milled about to get a better look.

On West Van Buren Street, a body could be scene lying in the roadway, near the curb and a bus stop.

A man who only identified himself as the teen victim's uncle said the boy, whose family lived nearby, had simply gone to run an errand.

"He was just going to the store," the man said. "They just killed him just like that."

Later, the man paced back and forth on the sidewalk, shaking his head in disbelief.

"He goes to school and everything," he said to a police officer.

This man and the boy were the 4th and 5th people killed today, and the shooting was the city's second double homicide.

chicagobreaking@tribune.com

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Well: Ask Well: Squats for Aging Knees

You are already doing many things right, in terms of taking care of your aging knees. In particular, it sounds as if you are keeping your weight under control. Carrying extra pounds undoubtedly strains knees and contributes to pain and eventually arthritis.

You mention weight training, too, which is also valuable. Sturdy leg muscles, particularly those at the front and back of the thighs, stabilize the knee, says Joseph Hart, an assistant professor of kinesiology and certified athletic trainer at the University of Virginia, who often works with patients with knee pain.

An easy exercise to target those muscles is the squat. Although many of us have heard that squats harm knees, the exercise is actually “quite good for the knees, if you do the squats correctly,” Dr. Hart says. Simply stand with your legs shoulder-width apart and bend your legs until your thighs are almost, but not completely, parallel to the ground. Keep your upper body straight. Don’t bend forward, he says, since that movement can strain the knees. Try to complete 20 squats, using no weight at first. When that becomes easy, Dr. Hart suggests, hold a barbell with weights attached. Or simply clutch a full milk carton, which is my cheapskate’s squats routine.

Straight leg lifts are also useful for knee health. Sit on the floor with your back straight and one leg extended and the other bent toward your chest. In this position, lift the straight leg slightly off the ground and hold for 10 seconds. Repeat 10 to 20 times and then switch legs.

You can also find other exercises that target the knees in this video, “Increasing Knee Stability.”

Of course, before starting any exercise program, consult a physician, especially, Dr. Hart says, if your knees often ache, feel stiff or emit a strange, clicking noise, which could be symptoms of arthritis.

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Pitching Chicago to China

World Business Chicago Vice Chairman Michael Sacks and former Commerce Secretary William Daley leave Sunday on a six-day business mission to China, Sacks' first official foreign trip as a top adviser to Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

Sacks said that he and Daley will pay their own way to China while World Business Chicago, a nonprofit that acts as the city's economic development agency, will cover the travel costs for two staff members, including one from the mayor's office.

Sacks and Daley will visit Hong Kong and Beijing before joining up with Choose Chicago CEO Don Welsh and the Chicago Symphony Orchestra in Shanghai.

There, they'll take in a CSO concert and co-host a reception for about 75 people, including tour operators, and China-based alumni of Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.

Sacks said he asked for Daley's help in selling Chicago to foreign officials, specifically the Chinese, after the former chief of staff to President Barack Obama returned home from Washington last year. Sacks said that was months before Daley said he was considering a run for governor in 2014.

"His gravitas, his stature as former commerce secretary and former chief of staff have made the quality of this trip better than anything I could have done myself," Sacks said. "I would not have been able to secure these meetings without him."

Daley and Sacks are expected to meet with 30-plus corporate executives, including the CEO of Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific and billionaire Chinese entrepreneur Lu Guanqiu, whose son-in-law, Pin Ni, runs Elgin-based auto parts maker Wanxiang America Corp.; six Chinese officials, including the acting mayor of Beijing and China's commerce minister, Chen Deming; and U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke.

Sacks' role with World Business Chicago is a volunteer position. His day job is CEO of Grosvenor Capital Management. The investment firm is known as a hedge fund of funds because its primary business is to invest in multiple hedge funds on behalf of large investors, such as pension funds, corporations and sovereign wealth funds.

Sacks frequently travels abroad for his work, often adding city-related sales pitches to his itineraries. This, however, is his first foreign trip focused on his work at World Business Chicago.

Spertus changes name

The Spertus Institute this week will tweak its name — and with it, its identity — as part of an ongoing effort to recover from an unfortunately timed decision to open a new building on the eve of the financial crisis.

The institute, which has been a pillar of Jewish culture in Chicago since 1924, will now be called the Spertus Institute for Jewish Learning and Leadership. The institute also announced that its programming for children and families will be cut for the foreseeable future in favor of new academic offerings for people working at nonprofits.

"During the past 31/2 years, we eliminated a $3.8 million operating deficit, largely by dramatically reducing our programmatic footprint," said Hal Lewis, the institute's president, who took over in July 2009. "So I didn't have the money to go and get branding assistance. But I was convinced we had a branding challenge — because when I first became president I spent a good solid four months on a listening tour, in which people told me, 'Oh, yeah, I know something about Spertus,' but there was uncertainty about the work we did."

A grant from the Harvey L. Miller Foundation paid for most of the rebranding effort, which an outside consulting firm led.

"I should say I'm generally skeptical of consultants," Lewis said. "But they taught me something elegantly simple: Spend more time talking about the why and less time on the how. We know the enormous array of programs we offer ... but we never said why that's important. ... (The answer is) we believe that a learning Jewish community is a vibrant Jewish community. It is the historic experience of the Jewish people that learning doesn't stop at adolescence."

The institute has about 400 students in degree and certificate programs, from a one-day certificate in grant writing to a doctorate in Jewish studies, which can take up to 10 years to complete. The institute also offers public lectures on politics, arts and culture as well as museum-style exhibits.

Spertus plans to offer new leadership concentrations within its master's degree programs aimed at youth workers, camp counselors and early childhood teachers. It also plans to create programs in social entrepreneurship and lay-leader training. Lewis said also he may eliminate one of Spertus' existing education degrees, but these changes are not final and will not be announced until the spring.

"We were never best at early childhood education," Lewis said. "The synagogues are far better at that ... So this is not a retreat from one of our historic strong suits."

The seeds of the long-running overhaul of Spertus can be traced to the November 2007 opening of its building, an iconic glass sculpture at 610 S. Michigan Ave.

Lewis said so many assumptions about the building failed to materialize, such as revenue from room rentals. Nonprofits also heavily cut professional development funds during the recession, which, in turn, lowered enrollment because students were no longer able to get help paying for their master's degrees.

However, rentals and other economic indicators are beginning to reverse. The falling stock market hurt Spertus' program endowment, slicing it to about $6 million, and its building endowment to about $12 million. Those funds are now at about $7 million and about $17 million, respectively, Lewis said.

Steven Nasatir, president of the Jewish United Fund/Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, said his organization is assisting Spertus with fundraising. He said without the branding and other program changes Lewis is making, Spertus would be "treading water."

"The name change is a manifestation of resetting goals and is a positive thing," he said. "People have to better understand what you're attempting to do."

Melissa Harris can be reached at mmharris@tribune.com or 312-222-4582.

Twitter @chiconfidential

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40 Years After Roe v. Wade, Thousands March to Oppose Abortion

Drew Angerer/The New York Times

Pro-life activists made their way down Constitution Avenue toward the Supreme Court during the March for Life in Washington on Friday.

WASHINGTON — Three days after the 40th anniversary of the decision in Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court case that legalized abortion, tens of thousands of abortion opponents from around the country came to the National Mall on Friday for the annual March for Life rally, which culminated in a demonstration in front of the Supreme Court building.

On a gray morning when the temperature was well below freezing, the crowd pressed in close against the stage to hear more than a dozen speakers, who included Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council; Representative Diane Black, Republican of Tennessee, who recently introduced legislation to withhold financing from Planned Parenthood, and Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky; Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley of Boston; and Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania and Republican presidential candidate.

Mr. Santorum spoke of his wife’s decision not to have an abortion after they learned that their child — their daughter Bella, now 4 — had a rare genetic disorder called Trisomy 18.

“We all know that death is never better, never better,” Mr. Santorum said. “Bella is better for us, and we are better because of Bella.”

Jeanne Monahan, the president of the March for Life Education and Defense Fund, said that the march was both somber and hopeful.

“We’ve lost 55 million Americans to abortion,” she said. “At the same time, I think we’re starting to win. We’re winning in the court of public opinion, we’re winning in the states with legislation.”

Though the main event officially started at noon, the day began much earlier for the participants, with groups in matching scarves engaged in excited chatter on the subway and gaggles of schoolchildren wearing name tags around their necks. Arriving on the Mall, attendees were greeted with free signs (“Defund Planned Parenthood” and “Personhood for Everyone”) and a man barking into a megaphone, “Ireland is on the brink of legalizing abortion, which is not good.”

The march came two months after the 2012 campaign season, in which social issues like abortion largely took a back seat to the focus on the economy. But the issue did come up in Congressional races in which Republican candidates made controversial statements about rape or abortion. In Indiana, Richard E. Mourdock, a Republican candidate for the Senate, said in a debate that he believed that pregnancies resulting from rape were something that “God intended,” and in Illinois, Representative Joe Walsh said in a debate that abortion was never necessary to save the life of the mother because of “advances in science and technology.” Both men lost, hurt by a backlash from female voters.

Recent polls show that while a majority of Americans do not want Roe v. Wade to be overturned entirely, many favor some restrictions. In a Gallup poll released this week, 52 percent of those surveyed said that abortions should be legal only under certain circumstances, while 28 percent said they should be legal under all circumstances, and 18 percent said they should be illegal under all circumstances. In a Pew poll this month, 63 percent of respondents said they did not want Roe v. Wade to be overturned completely, and 29 percent said they did — views largely consistent with surveys taken over the past two decades.

“Most Americans want some restrictions on abortion,” Ms. Monahan said. “We see abortion as the human rights abuse of today.”

Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, who spoke via a recorded video, called on the protest group, particularly the young people, to make abortion “a relic of the past.”

“Human life is not an economic or political commodity, and no government on earth has the right to treat it that way,” he said.

The crowd was dotted with large banners, many bearing the names of the attendees’ home states and churches and colleges. Gary Storey, 36, stood holding a handmade sign that read “I was adopted. Thanks Mom for my life.” Next to him stood his adoptive mother, Ellen Storey, 66, who held her own handmade sign with a picture of her six children and the words “To the mothers of our four adopted children, ‘Thank You’ for their lives.”

Mr. Storey said he was grateful for the decision by his biological mother to carry through with her pregnancy. “Beats the alternative,” he joked.

Last week, the Planned Parenthood Federation of America started a new Web site, and on Tuesday, its president, Cecile Richards, released a statement supporting abortion rights.

“Planned Parenthood understands that abortion is a deeply personal and often complex decision for a woman to consider, if and when she needs it,” she said. “A woman should have accurate information about all of her options around her pregnancy. To protect her health and the health of her family, a woman must have access to safe, legal abortion without interference from politicians, as protected by the Supreme Court for the last 40 years.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 25, 2013

A summary that appeared on the home page of NYTimes.com with an earlier version of this article misstated the day of the march. It took place on Friday, not Thursday.

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2012 stock report: Pains and gains

If you invested heavily in Illinois companies that provide consulting services, you had little reason to celebrate in 2012.

While the Standard & Poor's 500 index ended the year up 13 percent, most large businesses in the region that counsel other companies on how to improve their operations saw their stock prices drop.

Business support services was one of the few sectors getting clobbered in a 2012 Tribune ranking of Illinois and northwest Indiana stocks' performance.

Stock prices gained at about 70 percent of the 127 companies on the list, and about half outperformed the S&P 500. Bank owners such as Taylor Capital Group emerged from their 2011 doldrums, and Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. and Discover Financial Services marked their second consecutive year of soaring stock prices.

The year's biggest decliner, down 76 percent, was Groupon, as once-torrid revenue growth at the daily deals offerer started slowing.

Career Education was the second-worst performer; its stock fell 56 percent. The highly scrutinized for-profit school chain said it would close campuses and cut jobs amid sinking revenue and financial losses.

Sectors boosted by broad gains in 2012 included electrical parts and equipment, industrial machinery, and specialty chemicals.

Of seven Illinois banks on the list, all but one outperformed the S&P 500, with price appreciation of those six ranging from 16 to 86 percent.

In contrast, stocks of four of five professional services firms — Navigant Consulting, Huron Consulting Group, Heidrick & Struggles International and R.R. Donnelley & Sons — closed down 2 to 38 percent.

Each had its own set of issues.

Navigant's services, for example, include advising companies that face disputes, litigation and investigations, including government probes, as well as businesses that need help valuing potential mergers and acquisitions.

"You see fewer government investigations during an election year, as regulators are leaving their jobs, and they don't want to start new ones," said Tobey Sommer, a SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst. "Also, worries about the 'fiscal cliff' slowed M&A because CEOs didn't want to look foolish acquiring a company in September ahead of the fiscal cliff when they might have been able to buy it for 20 percent less in January had we gone off."

Meanwhile, Heidrick's troubles included a slowing market for executive searches. In early 2012, analysts expected Heidrick's annual earnings to be in the range of about $1.30 per share. It appears that it will earn closer to 57 cents a share.

Huron's earnings estimates during 2012 were also trimmed, to about $2.10 from about $2.40 a share as the timing of fee payments to its health care consulting business proved volatile.

"Its underlying demand is strong," but an increasing number of clients had signed contracts where a larger portion of revenue was contingent on the outcome of Huron's consulting work, said Randle Reece, analyst with Avondale Partners LLC. That made it harder for the company and the analysts who cover it to predict the timing of revenues, since they are deferred.

For investors interested in "Dumpster diving," Morningstar Inc. considers Exelon, WMS Industries and Caterpillar to be high quality yet undervalued this year, said Heather Brilliant, chief equities strategist.

Navigant is among the region's beaten-down stocks liked by stock research firm EVA Dimensions LLC. "Its fundamentals are improving, and it's really cheap," said EVA analyst Andrew Zamfotis.

Best of the best

Here are the top three stock gainers of 2012:

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